A fun post-mortem of the polls..


Or rather, the pollsters.. Specifically, I’ll focus on 2, one from “each side of the aisle.” The assumed “left-leaning” Public Policy Polling (actually, in looking at the last 3 elections, “left-leaning” really means “accurate” in PPP’s case) and our “right-leaning” old buddy Scott Rasmussen, the holy grail of right-wing poll cherry-pickers. I’ll stick to national and swing-state polls, because it’s irrelevant to see how close they were in Kansas and Connecticut.

I’ll also add Nate Silver’s projections as proof of his surreal god damn sorcery.

**PLEASE NOTE** As of my writing this blog, there may be some ballots yet to be counted in Washington State, Oregon, California, and a few other states, which could nudge Obama’s margin up slightly.

Anyhoo…. not even going to mention Gallup, who as I previously displayed effectively removed huge swaths of voters under 30 from their “LV” sample. So let’s have a gander, shall we?

I’m going to hold off excessive commentary and just focus on the numbers. As (hopefully) we’ve learned, the numbers speak for themselves, no matter how my right-wing friends bravely and futily fight them with unyielding spirit.

Another note: As of writing this, Rasmussen’s site has made their final presidential tracker nearly impossible to find. LOL.. good move Scotty. 

USA!! USA!! Time for the voice of all Americans to be heard to pick the next President.. unless you live in one of the 39 states where the race won’t be close enough to even bother polling..

Final projections/actual tallies:

PPP National projection: Obama 50/Romney 47

Rasmussen National projection: Romney 49/Obama 48

Nate Silver projection: Obama 50.8/Romney 48.3

Actual result:   Obama 50.4/48.1

PPP Verdict:  CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: INCORRECT 

Notes: PPP didn’t publish fractions on this poll, rounding either up or down, so I can’t say for sure how close they were to the tenth like with Nate Silver.. but on first look they may have under-estimated Romney’s national support by ~ 1 point. And then there’s good ol’ Rass.. like Gallup, giving Romney supporters some false hope, since EV/PV splits are rare.

Eagles-Fans

Pennsylvania: Home to FUCK YOU, SANTA…

Pennsylvania:

PPP: Obama 52/Romney 46

Rasmussen: Obama 51/Romney 46

Nate Silver: Obama 52.5/Romney 46.6

Actual result: Obama 52/Romney 46.8

PPP Verdict:  CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: CORRECT

Notes: Can’t get much closer to “nailing it” than this for both sides. Perhaps another slight underrating of Romney support, irrelevant to final tally. And good job Rass!!.. Maybe he did better than ’08 and ’10…. maybe..

Ohio: Did Romney remember this was a critical swing state with lots of auto- …aww fuck it. Sick of hearing about this place.

Ohio:

PPP: Obama 52/Romney 47

Rasmussen: Obama 49/Romney 49

Nate Silver: Obama 51.3/Romney 47.7

Actual Result: Obama 50.1/Romney 48.2

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE

Notes: Romney outperformed a lot of polls in Ohio, including perhaps his own internals. However it was irrelevant to the final numbers, Karl Rove’s protests notwithstanding. At this point one could argue a very slight bias in PPP’s polling towards Obama, but not nearly enough to make an incorrect prediction. As for Rass, well I’ve decided that when a pollster predicts a tie, unless they were off by > 2%, it’s an inconclusive prediction. But in this case Rass’s Ohio poll was very misleading for the entire national picture, as it showed arguably the most important swing state in a dead-heat, when basically all other polls showed a small but steady Obama lead. Let’s see if it got better for Rass. (spoiler: it didn’t) 

Virginia: Governor forced ultra-sound? check. Heavy handed-state response to women protesting? check. Chance of Romney winning VA? Oh…

Virginia:

PPP: Obama 51/Romney 47

Rasmussen: Romney 50/Obama 48

Nate Silver: Obama 50.7/Romney 48.7

Actual Results: Obama 50.8/Romney 47.8

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen verdict: INCORRECT

Notes: If you stopped paying attention to the polls in early October, this result might have surprised you. If you were paying attention the last week or so, it didn’t. PPP obviously wasn’t surprised. Once again, highly accurate with the slightest underrating of Romney support. As for Rass, this was an epic fail. One that should really make people question his credibility as a pollster. You’re talking about a critical swing state that he got wrong by 5 points, all in the direction of Romney. He’d get a pass if it was his only bad miss of the night, or if there isn’t a history of this with his swing state polls. (spoiler: it wasn’t, and there is)

Michigan: According to friends who have lived there, this more or less sums up Michigan..

Michigan:

PPP: Obama 52/Romney 46

Rasmussen: Obama 52/Romney 47

Nate Silver: Obama 53/Romney 45.9

Actual Results: Obama 53.8/Romney 45.3

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: CORRECT

Notes: Well, so much for the PPP-Obama bias. As you may recall, a few astro-turf polls came out in the waning days showing MI tied or Romney in the lead. This concerned the Obama camp so much David Axelrod put his mustache on the line to shore up support. And chalk up another good call for Rass. 2 so far.

Wisconsin: As opposed to commonly held perceptions, the people pictured do not represent the state as a whole

Wisconsin

PPP: Obama 51/Romney 48

Rasmussen: Obama 49/Romney 49

Nate Silver: Obama 52.4/Romney 46.9

Actual Results: Obama 52.8/Romney 46.1

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: LOL

Notes: et tu, Paul Ryan? And with that, the PPP-Obama bias theory is dead. You know, categorizing PA, MI, WI, and MN (actually, I’m not even gonna bother with MN) as “swing states” is kind of misleading. They were only deemed so because of Rasmussen and the Romney Campaign and media memes, who desperately wanted this to be a neck-and-neck horse race. In these states it really wasn’t. No idea what Rass was looking at here, but it’s another huge, honking miss… this time by nearly 7 points!! Ouch.

Iowa: Where Obama kicks off and ends his presidential campaigning, and Howard Fineman is reminded of his childhood in post-Civil War America

Iowa

PPP: Obama 50/Romney 48

Rasmussen: Romney 49/Obama 48

Nate Silver: Obama 51.1/Romney 47.9

Actual Results: Obama 52.1/Romney 46.5

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: FACEPALM

Notes: And now the bias would seem to have flipped, with PPP overestimating Romney’s support in some of these states. Which of course probably means there’s really no bias at all, and fluctuations are merely statistical noise. The most interesting thing to me in the closing days of the race in terms of Iowa, was when the great Howard Fineman flipped his shit over the Des Moines register endorsing Romney, which inexplicably led Fineman to muse that it was a sign Obama could very well lose the whole damn election. Good old Howard, hearkening back to a day when newspaper endorsements could really influence an election…. like maybe Grover Cleveland in 1888..

And.. oh Rasmussen.. Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen. Shall I compare thee to a Summer’s Eve?

New Hampshire: Where clearly, not many fucks are given

New Hampshire

PPP: Obama 50/Romney 48

Rasmussen: Obama 50/Romney 48

Nate Silver: Obama 51.4/Romney 47.9

Actual Results: Obama 52.1/Romney 46.5

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: CORRECT

Notes: Not much to say here, as both polls got the winner right, but by 4 points worse for Obama. Romney spent a lot of time campaigning here in the final week, as part of a strategy that would have also required picking up a whole bunch more states he had no real shot in. Or as his campaign called it: “Expanding the Map.”

North Carolina: Yea, we’re still the Deep South

North Carolina

PPP: Obama 49/Romney 49

Rasmussen: Romney 52/Obama 46

Nate Silver: Romney 50.6/Obama 48.9 

Actual Results: Romney 50.6/Obama 48.4

PPP Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE

Rasmussen Verdict: CORRECT

Notes: North Carolina has rapidly changing demographics, and is no longer safe GOP territory. Romney had to fight here, and it was a critical state for him to win, not for Obama. Rass got it right, but overestimated Romney by 4 points. Definite pattern emerging.

Oh, and look at Silver’s #s. Holy fuck.

Florida: Trust me, it’s much better to visit than to live here

Florida

PPP: Obama 50/Romney 49

Rasmussen: Romney 50/Obama 48

Nate Silver: Obama 49.8/Romney 49.8

Actual Results*: Obama 49.9/Romney 49.3

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: INCORRECT

*as of 11/8/2012 at 2:14 pm CST, Florida has not officially called the state for Obama. And I mean.. really..why should they? It’s only November 8th

Notes: Governor Rick Scott shortened the state’s 14 early voting days down to 8, because… yea well, you guess. South Florida voters responded by showing up, waiting in line for upwards of 6,7,8 hours, and extending a solid middle finger in Governor Scott’s face in the form of a vote for Obama.

And once again.. Nate Silver…..                  sorcery

Colorado: Rocky Mountain High

Colorado

PPP: Obama 52/Romney 46

Rasmussen: Romney 50/Obama 47

Nate Silver: Obama 50.8/Romney 48.3

Actual Results: Obama 51.2/Romney 46.5

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: GOOD GOD MAN

Notes: Colorado is one of those states that was very conservative years ago, and some pollsters just kinda refuse to accept it’s now much more young, much more liberal, and much more Hispanic. Pollsters like Rass, who really did another bang-up job here, missing by a whopping 7 points.. again..  apparently saw fit to find a “likely voter” model analogous to the 1980’s. Keep in mind Obama won this state in 2008 by 9 points. At a certain point there’s ignorance and being behind on trends, and then there’s willful ignorance.

Nevada: We get polled a lot now

Nevada

PPP: Obama 51/Romney 47

Rasmussen: Obama 50/Romney 48

Nate Silver: Obama 51.8/Romney 47.3

Actual Results: Obama 52.3/Romney 45.7

PPP Verdict: CORRECT

Rasmussen Verdict: EVEN A BLIND SQUIRREL..

Notes: Let’s leave this on a semi-positive not for our buddy Scott Rass.. Sure, he was off by nearly 5 points in another key swing state, but at least he got the winner right. If you are interested in the changing political landscape in Nevada, and why pollsters like Rass and Gallup have no clue how to poll there, check out Ralston Reports.

Bottom line: the anti-Obama crowd stayed confident, arrogant, sometimes downright smug over all the good news that Scott Rasmussen delivered to their Twitter feeds and inboxes with his polls. This same crowd inevitably, and this went right up through professional “pundits” had themselves good laughs dismissing PPP and Nate Silver. It seemed odd to me, because it was very easy to research each’s respective track records for recent elections. And if you did, then these results aren’t terribly surprising, although Rass was even more off than 2008 and 2010, and Nate Silver even more accurate.

Now once the shoe is on the other foot, and PPP and Nate Silver start showing us liberals #s in an election that doesn’t look so good for our candidate, will we substitute reality and inject our own, like our friends of the other political persuasion, or will we accept this wicked partisan sorcery (solid math and fundamentals of statistics) as truth? We shall see..

A quickie – Remember this guy?


No, no, no Joe.. more… SMUG….. perfect…

Good old Joe the plumber. His name isn’t Joe, and he isn’t actually a plumber. But still, after Palin-mania died a wicked death, he was the last best hope for the McCain campaign in the waning days of the 2008 election.. because taxes.. or something.

Joe didn’t just turn out to be a very fake, ego-maniacal opportunistic “everyman,” he also turned out to be a virulent racist, homophobe, and a tad nuts. As Wonkette reminds us, he’s sorta/kinda running for US Congress, although he skips out on debates, does more hunting than campaigning, and in scant polling doesn’t seem to be taken very seriously, despite the energetic support of the Tea Party and NRA (Must have  been his public declaration that the Holocaust was caused in part by WWII-era gun control in Europe).

The Wonkette feature also points out that the Hardcover copy of his 2009 book, titled: “Derpa Derpa American Dream they Took our Jerbs!”, or something like that, is on sale at Amazon for 1 cent (even signed by Joe!).

I wasn’t so much interested in the ways and means of how to acquire the Plumber’s book as I was in the ” Customers Who Viewed This Item Also Viewed” section, the top ones which I have included here, unaltered, with their Amazon descriptions:

Culture of Corruption: Obama and His Team of Tax Cheats, Crooks, and Cronies [Paperback]

Michelle Malkin (Author)

Also, incidentally, available for 1 cent at Amazon

Book Description

Release Date: August 9, 2010
Barack Obama’s approval ratings are at an all-time low. A recent Gallup poll found that half of the Americans polled said Obama did not deserve a second term. Weary of the corruption that gushes from the White House faster than a Gulf Coast oil spill, voters are ready to put a cap on smear campaigns, pay-to-play schemes, recess appointments, and Chicago politics.
In the updated paperback edition of her #1 New York Times bestselling book Culture of Corruption: Obama and His Team of Tax Cheats, Crooks, and Cronies, Michelle Malkin says, “I told you so,” citing a new host of examples of Obama’s broken promises and brass knuckled Chicago way.Culture of Corruption proves once again this isn’t just any politics. It’s “boodle”-clogged, dissent-squelching, redistributive Chicago politics. The 2010 elections promise to be an anti-corruption referendum for the history books. “After all,” Malkin says “You can’t reform corruptocrats, but you can vote them out.” New revelations in the updated Culture of Corruption:
How Obama has declared war on independent government whistleblowers—with unannounced firings, smear campaigns, and forced silence—when their findings expose his political allies.
How First Lady Michelle Obama’s campaign against childhood obesity is less about reducing our youths’ waistlines and more about swelling SEIU coffers with nearly 400,000 new food service workers.
How, despite the exposure of ACORN’s illegal practices and subsequent defunding, ACORN still remains—and why the Obama White House remains tight-lipped on the future of ACORN.
How Obama is using recess appointments to install politicos when both Democrats and Republicans have torpedoed the nominations.
How the White House is manipulating key races across the country, including endorsing such candidates as Alexi Giannoulias—a mob-linked, scandal-tainted banker from Obama’s hometown.Powerful, damning, and comprehensive, the paperback edition of Culture of Corruption reveals the ever-growing mountain of sleaze and self-dealing that the Obama administration would rather you not know.

Uranium Ore

Customers who bought this item also bought Canned Unicorn Meat. 2 degrees of separation from Joe’s book..

Product Description

Radioactive sample of uranium ore. Useful for testing Geiger Counters. License exempt. Uranium ore sample sizes vary. Shipped in labeled metal container as shown. Shipping Information: We are always in compliance with Section 13 from part 40 of the NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission rules and regulations and Postal Service regulations specified in 49 CFR 173.421 for activity limits of low level radioactive materials. Item will be shipped in accordance with Postal Service activity limits specified in Publication 52. Radioactive minerals are for educational and scientific use only.

How to Avoid Huge Ships [Paperback]

John W. Trimmer (Author)

This one is available from $500 new and $250 used, FYI

Sadly, no description, but a helpful review:

5.0 out of 5 stars Reads like a whodunnit! December 21, 2010

Format:Paperback
I bought How to Avoid Huge Ships as a companion to Captain Trimmer’s other excellent titles: How to Avoid a Train, and How to Avoid the Empire State Building. These books are fast paced, well written and the hard won knowledge found in them is as inspirational as it is informational. After reading them I haven’t been hit by anything bigger than a diesel bus. Thanks captain!

Wheelmate Laptop Steering Wheel Desk

by Go Office

I kinda want one of these..

Product Description

Introducing the AutoExec WM-01 Wheelmate Steering Wheel Desk Tray – Gray – , featured in our Other Vehicle Parts department. This product generally ships within 2 business day(s) from Pinellas Park, Florida, and weighs 2 pound(s). Attaches to your steering wheel for easy access to a writing and drink storage surface. The Go Office Wheel Mate Steering Wheel Desk is flat for writing and perfect for lunch or a snack. This Go Office Wheel Mate Steering Wheel Desk stores neatly in your car when used with the larger Auto Exec Laptop Car Desk. For safety reasons, never use this product while driving. Easily convert your car into your personal automobile office with the Wheel Mate car desk by MobileOffice.

The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Understanding Intelligent Design [Paperback]

Christopher Carlisle (Author), W. Thomas Smith Jr. (Author)

I think I’ve become so cynical, irony has little effect on me anymore. But if it did, my brain would have just exploded.

Book Description

Release Date: December 5, 2006 | ISBN-10: 1592575552 | ISBN-13: 978-1592575558
An objective overview of the biggest controversy in American education.Intelligent Design is one of the hottest issues facing parents and educators to day, but it can be hard to separate the facts from the heated rhetoric. This expert and objective guide gets to the bottom of the questions: What is Intelligent Design? Should it replace or complement traditional science? What’s all the fuss about?
• Explains the terms, the controversy, and the involvement of the American courts
• Indispensable guide for concerned educators and parents
• Written by an expert in the field
(Blogger’s note here.. I love this last bullet point. It’s written by an “expert” in a completely made up, bogus “field.” Well then, I am an expert in Porklefuckknobbing. That’s not a real thing, but I dare you to prove I’m not an expert in it. I’m writing a book.)

The Bush Boom: How a Misunderestimated President Fixed a Broken Economy [Paperback]

Jerry Bowyer (Author)

This one is available for 2 cents, quite literally double the price of Joe and Michelle Malkin’s books.

Book Description

Publication Date: October 25, 2003
Jerry Bowyer confronts the critics and offers clear and convincing evidence that the Bush Administration fixed a broken economy, boosting the fastest economic turnaround since President Ronald Regan.

Rejuvenique RJV10KIT Facial Toning Mask Kit

by Rejuvenique

…………………

Product Features

  • Face mask’s 26 gold-plated contacts tone skin with light energy pulsation
  • Battery-operated (9-volt battery included)
  • Knob adjusts pulsation intensity to suit individual preference
  • Mask adjusts to fit any face size, both male and female
  • Instruction video tape and contact toning gel included

Touched: The Jerry Sandusky Story [Paperback]

Jerry Sandusky (Author)

There was a “leather bound” edition, but it’s sold out.   =(

Book Description

Publication Date: January 1, 2001
Touched is the story of Jerry Sandusky’s life in his own words. From his childhood to his professional career, this book goes behind the scenes to explore the successes and challenges that Jerry Sandusky has faced in life, both on and off the football field. After graduating from Penn State in 1966, Sandusky went on to coach collegiate football for 34 years. Thirty-two of those years were with Penn State, as the defensive coordinator and linebackers coach under Joe Paterno, until his retirement in 1999. The book also explores Sandusky’s involvement in children’s charities, including the founding of his charity, “Second Mile.”

Accoutrements Horse Head Mask

by Accoutrements

AIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Product Description

From the Manufacturer

We’ve discovered yet another universal truth – a person wearing a Horse Head Mask looks downright disturbing. But don’t take our word for it, wear this latex mask with realistic fur mane to your next social function and watch as people scramble to avoid you. Fits most adult heads. Bagged with illustrated tag.